The Sales

After Amgen had announced the positive test results on the weekend, the price jumped again to 12%. It followed on Monday evening the quarterly results that exceeded expectations and the rate jumped to another 5%. Particularly positive, analysts viewed the Outlook of the company: sales and profit forecast corrected upwards. In particular, the increased growth rate can now sharpen the pencil analysts and figure out new price targets: with growth of 4% p.a., the p/e ratio of 14 was already quite high. The new prospect of growth of 11% per annum, a p/e ratio of 22 is no problem. And that should diminish soon, a significantly higher profit is expected yet for the current year, as currently included in the forecasts. There is review-technically still game in the stock. A downer I have yet discovered: the sales and profit decline in Aranesp was largely absorbed by other medications.

The other drugs have reported no increase in sales volume, but the management claimed to have achieved higher sales prices. But if you look at the quarterly results in detail then you’ll see that these higher revenues from abroad… made and about the weak US dollar is this extra revenue thus alone on the currency effect resulting from: 100 euros were still 145 USD at the beginning of the year, today there are already 155 USD. Amgen has so simply been lucky in the past quarter, to be able to compensate for a portion of the sales problems through the development of the currency. Thus, D-mab looks as if it were the proverbial straw, after which the company engages. If the drug keeps what it promises, then sales, profits and stock price will rise. But a better assessment of the chances of success is probably only possible in September after the publication of the detailed test results. CHART technology: 3-year chart of Amgen: Rally since mid-April after Amgen had approached the valuation level by pharmaceutical companies, considered the stock suddenly not cyclic refuge for desperate refugees the U.S. Details can be found by clicking Journal of the American Medical Association or emailing the administrator.

financial crisis. In my eyes, this share has helped the turnaround. After ride once won the price and short coverings hardly took place, the positive test results and the good quarterly results were a welcome opportunity to put the stock in the sky. If the bold expectations of Amgen is for D-mab, the valuation level due to the increased profits will look already soon again cheap. A p/e ratio of 30 is can be discussed again, when at the same time increasing profits, the course could quickly jump towards 75 USD (i.e. 47 euros).